Probability Distribution of Coin Flip Guesses
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Is is possible to predict a person's guess on a coin flip? I understand that theoretically, the result should be 50/50, but would the actual guesses of an individual also follow this distribution? Although the coin flips are independent and each trial has a .5 chance of heads and .5 chance of tails, it makes sense to me that the guesses between trials are dependent - i.e. someone may be more likely to guess tails after a heads result due to the gambler's fallacy. I have found numerous references analyzing the distribution of the flips, but nothing on the guesses.
probability statistics game-theory
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
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add a comment |
$begingroup$
Is is possible to predict a person's guess on a coin flip? I understand that theoretically, the result should be 50/50, but would the actual guesses of an individual also follow this distribution? Although the coin flips are independent and each trial has a .5 chance of heads and .5 chance of tails, it makes sense to me that the guesses between trials are dependent - i.e. someone may be more likely to guess tails after a heads result due to the gambler's fallacy. I have found numerous references analyzing the distribution of the flips, but nothing on the guesses.
probability statistics game-theory
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
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As you point out, coin flips are independent events so the mathematical theory of optimal guesses is trivial. How people actually behave is not mathematics and the most relevant literature is probably in behavioral economics or psychology.
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– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:47
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You might be interested in looking up strategies for roshambo (rock, paper, scissors). Here, again the game theoretic optimal play is trivial, but in a tournament setting where winner takes all say, things are much less trivial. (Everyone has an incentive to deviate because playing the Nash equilibrium will guarantee you average results.)
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Is is possible to predict a person's guess on a coin flip? I understand that theoretically, the result should be 50/50, but would the actual guesses of an individual also follow this distribution? Although the coin flips are independent and each trial has a .5 chance of heads and .5 chance of tails, it makes sense to me that the guesses between trials are dependent - i.e. someone may be more likely to guess tails after a heads result due to the gambler's fallacy. I have found numerous references analyzing the distribution of the flips, but nothing on the guesses.
probability statistics game-theory
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
$endgroup$
Is is possible to predict a person's guess on a coin flip? I understand that theoretically, the result should be 50/50, but would the actual guesses of an individual also follow this distribution? Although the coin flips are independent and each trial has a .5 chance of heads and .5 chance of tails, it makes sense to me that the guesses between trials are dependent - i.e. someone may be more likely to guess tails after a heads result due to the gambler's fallacy. I have found numerous references analyzing the distribution of the flips, but nothing on the guesses.
probability statistics game-theory
probability statistics game-theory
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
asked Dec 6 '18 at 23:34
HDemaHDema
12
12
$begingroup$
As you point out, coin flips are independent events so the mathematical theory of optimal guesses is trivial. How people actually behave is not mathematics and the most relevant literature is probably in behavioral economics or psychology.
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:47
$begingroup$
You might be interested in looking up strategies for roshambo (rock, paper, scissors). Here, again the game theoretic optimal play is trivial, but in a tournament setting where winner takes all say, things are much less trivial. (Everyone has an incentive to deviate because playing the Nash equilibrium will guarantee you average results.)
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
As you point out, coin flips are independent events so the mathematical theory of optimal guesses is trivial. How people actually behave is not mathematics and the most relevant literature is probably in behavioral economics or psychology.
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:47
$begingroup$
You might be interested in looking up strategies for roshambo (rock, paper, scissors). Here, again the game theoretic optimal play is trivial, but in a tournament setting where winner takes all say, things are much less trivial. (Everyone has an incentive to deviate because playing the Nash equilibrium will guarantee you average results.)
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:51
$begingroup$
As you point out, coin flips are independent events so the mathematical theory of optimal guesses is trivial. How people actually behave is not mathematics and the most relevant literature is probably in behavioral economics or psychology.
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:47
$begingroup$
As you point out, coin flips are independent events so the mathematical theory of optimal guesses is trivial. How people actually behave is not mathematics and the most relevant literature is probably in behavioral economics or psychology.
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:47
$begingroup$
You might be interested in looking up strategies for roshambo (rock, paper, scissors). Here, again the game theoretic optimal play is trivial, but in a tournament setting where winner takes all say, things are much less trivial. (Everyone has an incentive to deviate because playing the Nash equilibrium will guarantee you average results.)
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:51
$begingroup$
You might be interested in looking up strategies for roshambo (rock, paper, scissors). Here, again the game theoretic optimal play is trivial, but in a tournament setting where winner takes all say, things are much less trivial. (Everyone has an incentive to deviate because playing the Nash equilibrium will guarantee you average results.)
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:51
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
As you point out, coin flips are independent events so the mathematical theory of optimal guesses is trivial. How people actually behave is not mathematics and the most relevant literature is probably in behavioral economics or psychology.
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:47
$begingroup$
You might be interested in looking up strategies for roshambo (rock, paper, scissors). Here, again the game theoretic optimal play is trivial, but in a tournament setting where winner takes all say, things are much less trivial. (Everyone has an incentive to deviate because playing the Nash equilibrium will guarantee you average results.)
$endgroup$
– maridia
Dec 6 '18 at 23:51