Conditional expectation of legitimate emails
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While Fred is sleeping one night, $X$ legitimate emails and $Y$ spam emails are sent tohim. Suppose that X and Y are independent, with $X$ ~$ Pois(10)$ and $Y $ ~ $Pois(40)$.When he wakes up, he observes that he has $30$ new emails in his inbox. Given this information, what is the expected value of how many new legitimate emails he has?
probability conditional-probability
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While Fred is sleeping one night, $X$ legitimate emails and $Y$ spam emails are sent tohim. Suppose that X and Y are independent, with $X$ ~$ Pois(10)$ and $Y $ ~ $Pois(40)$.When he wakes up, he observes that he has $30$ new emails in his inbox. Given this information, what is the expected value of how many new legitimate emails he has?
probability conditional-probability
this seems a question of some homework or assignment. you should show what you have tried and that you have made an effort to solve the question.
– D...
Nov 23 at 10:14
1
Well , X+Y follows pois(50)...so we have to find E(X|X+Y=30). I tried to evaluate the sum and somehow i got an absurd answer.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 11:40
add a comment |
up vote
-1
down vote
favorite
up vote
-1
down vote
favorite
While Fred is sleeping one night, $X$ legitimate emails and $Y$ spam emails are sent tohim. Suppose that X and Y are independent, with $X$ ~$ Pois(10)$ and $Y $ ~ $Pois(40)$.When he wakes up, he observes that he has $30$ new emails in his inbox. Given this information, what is the expected value of how many new legitimate emails he has?
probability conditional-probability
While Fred is sleeping one night, $X$ legitimate emails and $Y$ spam emails are sent tohim. Suppose that X and Y are independent, with $X$ ~$ Pois(10)$ and $Y $ ~ $Pois(40)$.When he wakes up, he observes that he has $30$ new emails in his inbox. Given this information, what is the expected value of how many new legitimate emails he has?
probability conditional-probability
probability conditional-probability
asked Nov 23 at 7:43
user587126
114
114
this seems a question of some homework or assignment. you should show what you have tried and that you have made an effort to solve the question.
– D...
Nov 23 at 10:14
1
Well , X+Y follows pois(50)...so we have to find E(X|X+Y=30). I tried to evaluate the sum and somehow i got an absurd answer.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 11:40
add a comment |
this seems a question of some homework or assignment. you should show what you have tried and that you have made an effort to solve the question.
– D...
Nov 23 at 10:14
1
Well , X+Y follows pois(50)...so we have to find E(X|X+Y=30). I tried to evaluate the sum and somehow i got an absurd answer.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 11:40
this seems a question of some homework or assignment. you should show what you have tried and that you have made an effort to solve the question.
– D...
Nov 23 at 10:14
this seems a question of some homework or assignment. you should show what you have tried and that you have made an effort to solve the question.
– D...
Nov 23 at 10:14
1
1
Well , X+Y follows pois(50)...so we have to find E(X|X+Y=30). I tried to evaluate the sum and somehow i got an absurd answer.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 11:40
Well , X+Y follows pois(50)...so we have to find E(X|X+Y=30). I tried to evaluate the sum and somehow i got an absurd answer.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 11:40
add a comment |
1 Answer
1
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oldest
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0
down vote
accepted
Let $p(X,Y)$ be the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$ and $p(X)=text{Pois}(X|lambda=10)$ and $p(Y)=text{Pois}(Y|lambda=40)$ the marginals for $X$ and $Y$ respectively.
Due to independence, $p(X,Y)=p(X)p(Y)$.
As you said, the random variable $X+Y$ follows a distribution $p(X+Y)=text{Pois}(X+Y|lambda=50)$.
We also need the conditional distribution $p(X|X+Y=30)$, which, by definition, is given by:
$p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{p(X,X+Y=30)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X,Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X)p(Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}$.
The denominator ${p(X+Y=30)}$ is constant, let's call it $k$. The numerator is some function of $X$ which you can easily compute by taking the product of the two Poisson distributions $p(X)$ and $p(Y=30-X)$. Let's call it $f(X)$. Then, $p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{1}{k}f(X)$.
Finally, your result is given by:
$mathbb{E}_{p(X|X+Y)}[X]=frac{1}{k}sum_{x=0}^{30}xf(x)$.
Now, it's just a matter of computing $k$, $f(X)$ and the sum above.
1
Thanks a lot! Actually i thought $p(X=x,Y=30-x)$=$p(Y=30-x) $ and things got messed up! ☺
– user587126
Nov 23 at 13:13
That's ok ;) when you have a question, it is useful to show what you have tried and add the steps that you have followed (even if there's some mistake on them). This shows that you have actually made an effort to solve the question and helps people who are willing to help you. :)
– D...
Nov 23 at 14:01
1
Okay...i will keep that in mind from now on.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 15:59
add a comment |
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
up vote
0
down vote
accepted
Let $p(X,Y)$ be the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$ and $p(X)=text{Pois}(X|lambda=10)$ and $p(Y)=text{Pois}(Y|lambda=40)$ the marginals for $X$ and $Y$ respectively.
Due to independence, $p(X,Y)=p(X)p(Y)$.
As you said, the random variable $X+Y$ follows a distribution $p(X+Y)=text{Pois}(X+Y|lambda=50)$.
We also need the conditional distribution $p(X|X+Y=30)$, which, by definition, is given by:
$p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{p(X,X+Y=30)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X,Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X)p(Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}$.
The denominator ${p(X+Y=30)}$ is constant, let's call it $k$. The numerator is some function of $X$ which you can easily compute by taking the product of the two Poisson distributions $p(X)$ and $p(Y=30-X)$. Let's call it $f(X)$. Then, $p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{1}{k}f(X)$.
Finally, your result is given by:
$mathbb{E}_{p(X|X+Y)}[X]=frac{1}{k}sum_{x=0}^{30}xf(x)$.
Now, it's just a matter of computing $k$, $f(X)$ and the sum above.
1
Thanks a lot! Actually i thought $p(X=x,Y=30-x)$=$p(Y=30-x) $ and things got messed up! ☺
– user587126
Nov 23 at 13:13
That's ok ;) when you have a question, it is useful to show what you have tried and add the steps that you have followed (even if there's some mistake on them). This shows that you have actually made an effort to solve the question and helps people who are willing to help you. :)
– D...
Nov 23 at 14:01
1
Okay...i will keep that in mind from now on.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 15:59
add a comment |
up vote
0
down vote
accepted
Let $p(X,Y)$ be the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$ and $p(X)=text{Pois}(X|lambda=10)$ and $p(Y)=text{Pois}(Y|lambda=40)$ the marginals for $X$ and $Y$ respectively.
Due to independence, $p(X,Y)=p(X)p(Y)$.
As you said, the random variable $X+Y$ follows a distribution $p(X+Y)=text{Pois}(X+Y|lambda=50)$.
We also need the conditional distribution $p(X|X+Y=30)$, which, by definition, is given by:
$p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{p(X,X+Y=30)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X,Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X)p(Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}$.
The denominator ${p(X+Y=30)}$ is constant, let's call it $k$. The numerator is some function of $X$ which you can easily compute by taking the product of the two Poisson distributions $p(X)$ and $p(Y=30-X)$. Let's call it $f(X)$. Then, $p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{1}{k}f(X)$.
Finally, your result is given by:
$mathbb{E}_{p(X|X+Y)}[X]=frac{1}{k}sum_{x=0}^{30}xf(x)$.
Now, it's just a matter of computing $k$, $f(X)$ and the sum above.
1
Thanks a lot! Actually i thought $p(X=x,Y=30-x)$=$p(Y=30-x) $ and things got messed up! ☺
– user587126
Nov 23 at 13:13
That's ok ;) when you have a question, it is useful to show what you have tried and add the steps that you have followed (even if there's some mistake on them). This shows that you have actually made an effort to solve the question and helps people who are willing to help you. :)
– D...
Nov 23 at 14:01
1
Okay...i will keep that in mind from now on.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 15:59
add a comment |
up vote
0
down vote
accepted
up vote
0
down vote
accepted
Let $p(X,Y)$ be the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$ and $p(X)=text{Pois}(X|lambda=10)$ and $p(Y)=text{Pois}(Y|lambda=40)$ the marginals for $X$ and $Y$ respectively.
Due to independence, $p(X,Y)=p(X)p(Y)$.
As you said, the random variable $X+Y$ follows a distribution $p(X+Y)=text{Pois}(X+Y|lambda=50)$.
We also need the conditional distribution $p(X|X+Y=30)$, which, by definition, is given by:
$p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{p(X,X+Y=30)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X,Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X)p(Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}$.
The denominator ${p(X+Y=30)}$ is constant, let's call it $k$. The numerator is some function of $X$ which you can easily compute by taking the product of the two Poisson distributions $p(X)$ and $p(Y=30-X)$. Let's call it $f(X)$. Then, $p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{1}{k}f(X)$.
Finally, your result is given by:
$mathbb{E}_{p(X|X+Y)}[X]=frac{1}{k}sum_{x=0}^{30}xf(x)$.
Now, it's just a matter of computing $k$, $f(X)$ and the sum above.
Let $p(X,Y)$ be the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$ and $p(X)=text{Pois}(X|lambda=10)$ and $p(Y)=text{Pois}(Y|lambda=40)$ the marginals for $X$ and $Y$ respectively.
Due to independence, $p(X,Y)=p(X)p(Y)$.
As you said, the random variable $X+Y$ follows a distribution $p(X+Y)=text{Pois}(X+Y|lambda=50)$.
We also need the conditional distribution $p(X|X+Y=30)$, which, by definition, is given by:
$p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{p(X,X+Y=30)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X,Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}=frac{p(X)p(Y=30-X)}{p(X+Y=30)}$.
The denominator ${p(X+Y=30)}$ is constant, let's call it $k$. The numerator is some function of $X$ which you can easily compute by taking the product of the two Poisson distributions $p(X)$ and $p(Y=30-X)$. Let's call it $f(X)$. Then, $p(X|X+Y=30) = frac{1}{k}f(X)$.
Finally, your result is given by:
$mathbb{E}_{p(X|X+Y)}[X]=frac{1}{k}sum_{x=0}^{30}xf(x)$.
Now, it's just a matter of computing $k$, $f(X)$ and the sum above.
answered Nov 23 at 12:27
D...
274112
274112
1
Thanks a lot! Actually i thought $p(X=x,Y=30-x)$=$p(Y=30-x) $ and things got messed up! ☺
– user587126
Nov 23 at 13:13
That's ok ;) when you have a question, it is useful to show what you have tried and add the steps that you have followed (even if there's some mistake on them). This shows that you have actually made an effort to solve the question and helps people who are willing to help you. :)
– D...
Nov 23 at 14:01
1
Okay...i will keep that in mind from now on.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 15:59
add a comment |
1
Thanks a lot! Actually i thought $p(X=x,Y=30-x)$=$p(Y=30-x) $ and things got messed up! ☺
– user587126
Nov 23 at 13:13
That's ok ;) when you have a question, it is useful to show what you have tried and add the steps that you have followed (even if there's some mistake on them). This shows that you have actually made an effort to solve the question and helps people who are willing to help you. :)
– D...
Nov 23 at 14:01
1
Okay...i will keep that in mind from now on.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 15:59
1
1
Thanks a lot! Actually i thought $p(X=x,Y=30-x)$=$p(Y=30-x) $ and things got messed up! ☺
– user587126
Nov 23 at 13:13
Thanks a lot! Actually i thought $p(X=x,Y=30-x)$=$p(Y=30-x) $ and things got messed up! ☺
– user587126
Nov 23 at 13:13
That's ok ;) when you have a question, it is useful to show what you have tried and add the steps that you have followed (even if there's some mistake on them). This shows that you have actually made an effort to solve the question and helps people who are willing to help you. :)
– D...
Nov 23 at 14:01
That's ok ;) when you have a question, it is useful to show what you have tried and add the steps that you have followed (even if there's some mistake on them). This shows that you have actually made an effort to solve the question and helps people who are willing to help you. :)
– D...
Nov 23 at 14:01
1
1
Okay...i will keep that in mind from now on.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 15:59
Okay...i will keep that in mind from now on.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 15:59
add a comment |
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this seems a question of some homework or assignment. you should show what you have tried and that you have made an effort to solve the question.
– D...
Nov 23 at 10:14
1
Well , X+Y follows pois(50)...so we have to find E(X|X+Y=30). I tried to evaluate the sum and somehow i got an absurd answer.
– user587126
Nov 23 at 11:40